Will new builds in Odesa get more expensive: price drivers in 2026

We do not publish forecasts like "prices will rise by X percent": nobody can honestly guarantee them. But the forces pushing prices up are visible in the data. Construction and installation works in residential building became 19.2% more expensive over the year (June 2026 vs June 2025, Derzhstat, the State Statistics Service). The average minimum price per square metre in Odesa new builds, according to open sources Statistics, was UAH 50,000 in September 2026, up 10.1% on a year earlier. On the resale market, the median asking price in our database rose 11.6% over the year. Below we explain what drives developer prices, how they change by construction stage and how to choose the moment to buy.

What is happening with prices now

• New builds: UAH 50,000 per m², the average minimum price in Odesa for September 2026, +10.1% year on year.
• Resale: median of 1 227 $ per m², 3,584 listings in the FAKTOR database as of 30.09.2026; +2.4% in September, +5.6% over 3 months, +9.5% over 6 months, +11.6% over the year.
• Costs: prices of construction and installation works in June 2026 were 23.1% higher than in June 2025, and 19.2% higher in residential construction (Derzhstat).

Note that open sources new-build prices are in hryvnias while our resale data is in dollars, so the percentages should not be compared directly. The direction is the same, though: prices are rising and building costs are rising faster.

What pushes developer prices up

• Materials and works. Concrete, rebar, insulation, windows, lifts, and the contractors' work that goes with them. When costs grow by almost a fifth in a year, developers build that into the price of new phases and sections.
• Labour shortage. Some skilled builders have moved abroad or serve in the army. There are fewer crews, their work costs more and schedules get longer.
• Energy. Generators, backup power and energy-efficient design. It is a plus for the buyer, but also a direct cost line.
• Demand from eOselia. In Odesa region, except for internally displaced persons, the state mortgage programme finances housing under construction or no older than 3 years. So subsidised mortgages steer demand towards new builds and recently finished buildings.
• Land, financing and permits. Bank loans for developers are expensive, so projects are funded mostly by sales. That affects both the price and the pace of construction.

What holds growth back

• Purchasing power. Wages are rising, but most buyers struggle to buy a flat without a mortgage or an instalment plan.
• War risks. Some buyers prefer finished housing, so developers have to offer discounts or flexible terms at early stages.
• Competition. Odesa has many projects at different stages, and buyers can compare prices, layouts and payment schedules.
• Promotions and instalments. Discounts for full payment or longer instalment plans effectively lower the price even when the price list does not change.

How the price changes by construction stage

Within one complex, the price usually rises gradually from the start of sales to commissioning. Each developer sets its own steps, but the logic is the same:

1. Foundation pit and start of sales. The lowest price and the highest risk: the buyer is effectively financing construction.
2. Frame. The risk falls and the price catches up. Often a compromise between cost and certainty.
3. Facade, windows, utilities. The building is visible, the risk of it being left unfinished is lower, and the price is higher again.
4. Commissioning. The highest price per metre, but you can register ownership and move in or rent the flat out sooner.

The price also rises within a stage: as the best-value flats on lower floors and popular layouts sell out, fewer cheap units remain.

Is it worth waiting for prices to fall

Waiting for new-build price lists to drop only makes sense when costs stop rising or demand falls sharply. The data currently shows the opposite: construction is getting more expensive and subsidised mortgages support demand for new housing. So real savings usually come from the terms of the deal rather than from waiting:

• a discount for full payment or a larger down payment;
• a price fixed in the contract and a transparent indexation formula for instalments;
• a section or phase that has just gone on sale, from a developer with a proven track record;
• flats with a less popular view or floor, which are often cheaper than the complex average.

If you are buying a home to live in and the budget is ready, finding a reliable project and a convenient layout matters more than guessing the lowest point on the chart.

How to buy at the right moment

• Decide how much risk you accept. If you want the lowest price, factor in the risk of delay. If you want certainty, buy at a late stage or a finished flat.
• Check the documents. The construction permit in the Unified State Electronic System in Construction, land rights, the developerʼs track record and progress on its previous projects.
• Compare prices including terms. Instalment plans are often indexed to the exchange rate or a construction price index, so the final amount can be noticeably above the price list.
• Do not chase "the last price before the increase". It is a sales technique. Compare several projects of the same stage and class.
• Check mortgage options early. If you plan to use eOselia, first find out whether the bank finances that particular building.

How FAKTOR helps

We are an official partner of Odesa developers, so we offer new-build flats at developer prices, with no commission. We help you compare projects by stage, documents and payment terms.

Related: new builds in Odesa, how to buy a new-build flat in Odesa, developer instalment plans, Odesa property prices in September 2026.